Jeff Clark's Market Minute

The Most Important News in a Decade

The stock market often has a volatile reaction to the monthly jobs report. And today’s jobs number might be the most important number we’ve seen in 10 years.

Let me explain…

There is a strong correlation between the stock market and the unemployment rate. As the unemployment rate falls, the stock market tends to rise. And vice versa. 

Take a look at this chart of the unemployment rate along with its 20-month exponential moving average (EMA)

If you look at the action in early 2001 and in late 2007, you’ll notice the unemployment rate popped above its 20-month EMA. And, if you have a good memory, you might also remember what happened in the stock market shortly after those moves in 2001 and 2007.

For the past 10 years, the unemployment rate has been declining. And, for the past 10 years, the stock market has been rallying.

But, if you’ll notice, the unemployment rate spiked a little bit higher last month. We’re at 4% unemployment – which is a ridiculously low number and suggests our economy is firing on all cylinders.

 The spike higher, though, is a bit of a concern.

Recommended Link

JPMorgan Announces Its Own Cryptocurrency

JPMorgan is preparing for the future by rolling out the first US bank-backed cryptocurrency to transform the payments business.

Why? Because cryptocurrencies are not issued by governments. Their blockchain technology quickly transfers payments with a clear record of the transactions.

And by the look of recent online activity, it looks like JPMorgan might not be alone in the crypto arena… Amazon just bought up three domain names:

Amazon registered the new website address: “www.amazonethereum.com”. And it registered another: “www.amazoncryptocurrency.com”… And another: “www.amazoncryptocurrencies.com”.

This may sound too incredible to believe. But when you look at the evidence, you might feel differently.

Position yourself quickly… before the mainstream media and everybody else catch on.

Can you imagine any other event so powerful… to drive the largest bull market in the history of America…

The rate didn’t pop above the 20-month EMA last month. But it sure looks poised to do so today. And if it does, then the prospects for the stock market for the rest of 2019 turn bearish.

Rising unemployment is strongly correlated with a falling stock market. 

So, if today’s jobs report shows an increase in the unemployment rate above 4.1%, then all I can tell you is “SELL.” Stocks are headed lower.

If the unemployment rate dips down again, then the stock bull market has a little more life to it.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

Reader Mailbag

Do you think 2019 is going to turn bearish? Or do you think the bull has a little more life to it?

As always, send any other trading stories, questions, or suggestions to [email protected].

Jeff Clark's Market Minute Archives

Jeff’s intuitive feel for short term market swings and his strong protective discipline have allowed me to lock in thousands of dollars in gains where I might otherwise have just ridden the markets up and down .”  -Chris, a reader and “seasoned investment advisor” from Seattle

Jeff -- your picks and analysis have been nothing short of amazing. I have traded the market for many years but I must admit, I have NEVER seen something this good.” - Mike H.

In only 2 weeks of using the service I’ve booked over $10K in profits. Needless to say I’ve paid for my membership.” - Tony J.

I started following Delta Direct about 3 weeks ago… I bought a small investment from one afternoon to the next morning. About 11AM I got out and made 8K in less than 24 hours.” – D. Tilghman