Like Albert Einstein’s younger brother, Bitcoin has been a big disappointment.
Similar to gold, the King of Cryptocurrencies was supposed to be a stable hedge during turbulent financial times. It was supposed to provide protection against runaway central banks dropping traditional currencies from helicopters.
But, while gold has rallied more than 6% since mid-February – when the world first started going bonkers – Bitcoin has lost more than 25%. The only financial asset that has performed worse is oil – which is down 50%.
But, most folks can understand oil falling when the economy screeches to a halt. Most folks were hoping for something more from Bitcoin.
Maybe, though, the decline in Bitcoin is a bluff. And, there’s a big rally on the way. Let me explain…
Readers might remember how gold sold off hard along with the stock market in mid-March. The price of gold fell $200 in one week, from $1,675 an ounce to $1,475.
The recovery has been equally as impressive. Gold traded as high as $1,770 per ounce last week.
But the decline confused a lot of folks.
In hindsight, since gold recovered so fast, it appears the decline was an “if you can’t sell what you want to, then you sell what you can” event.
In other words, traders, investors, and institutions who needed to raise cash in mid-March and couldn’t justify selling their stocks chose to sell their gold instead. And, since most folks weren’t willing to step up and buy anything in mid-March, gold took a hit.
Since then, the price of gold has recovered. It hit a new 52-week high last week. And, it is serving its purpose as a store of value against the Fed’s “everyone gets a bailout” policy.
Today, I’m wondering if Bitcoin’s recovery is just delayed a bit. After all, Bitcoin is not as time-tested as gold. It’s less liquid. And, it’s harder to purchase.
So, while it sold off along with gold during the liquidity-event in mid-March, and has lagged gold over the past month, maybe Bitcoin is setting up for a monster catch-up rally.
The 60-minute chart of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) sure looks like it’s setting up for a big move, one way or another in the weeks ahead. Take a look…
The recent action in GBTC has formed a consolidating triangle pattern. GBTC is approaching the apex of the pattern. So, it’s going to break out of it – one way or another – within the next few days.
An upside breakout projects a move up to the resistance line at about $9.25. A downside break will likely lead to a move below $6.00.
If we’re only looking at the technical situation, then this is an even-money bet. The odds are 50/50 that GBTC moves higher or lower.
But, if you’re a believer that Bitcoin is a store of value and truly a hedge against out of control central banks, then you have to be bullish on Bitcoin here.
If GBTC breaks out to the upside, then traders can make 20% or more really fast.
If GBTC breaks down, though, then maybe the King of Cryptocurrencies has been dethroned.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
P.S. If you’ve watched the stock market rally these past couple weeks, thinking the worst is over… Well, I think you’re in for a surprise.
You see, I think we’re in for an “aftershock” of the coronavirus crash… and it could take us far lower than the previous dip. It’s the “third phase” of a bear market that I’ve been warning about.
But, you don’t have to be a victim. There will be plenty of opportunities to trade as this all plays out. Personally, I’ll be applying the same crisis playbook that allowed my readers to double their money 10 different times in the 2008 financial crisis. And what I’m seeing now suggests we’ll have even more opportunities than back then.
This Wednesday, I’m putting on a presentation to give you the full details. Just click here to reserve your spot.
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