Mike’s note: Jeff’s at the Legacy Investment Summit in Carlsbad, California, this week and unable to pen his regular Market Minute.
So today, we’re sharing one of Jeff’s all-time most popular essays. Read on, and learn one simple habit that will make you a much better trader…
“Don’t look back.”
That was the advice the angels gave to Lot and his family as they led them out of the city of Sodom, just before it was destroyed by the wrath of God.
Whatever happened to the city after he fled was no longer Lot’s concern. It was no longer any of his business. He couldn’t do anything about it.
So, “don’t look back” was the angel’s way of saying, “Look forward. There’s nothing to gain by watching what happens behind you. Focus on your future and what is ahead of you.”
As the Bible tells us, Lot’s wife wasn’t all that good at following directions. She couldn’t resist the temptation to look back and see what happened to the city she just left. And she was turned into a pillar of salt.
Why salt? Who knows? Maybe it’s because too much salt can lead to high blood pressure and heart problems. Maybe it’s because a pillar of salt is fragile, yet immovable.
Whatever. The bottom line is, Lot’s wife shouldn’t have looked back. And neither should traders.
Once you’ve exited a position, whether for a gain or a loss, it doesn’t matter what happens to that trade anymore. There’s nothing to be gained by looking back at it. Focus on the future and the opportunities that are in front of you.
If you look back, you run the same risks as Lot’s wife – not that you’ll be turned into a pillar of salt, of course. But that you’ll be rendered fragile and immovable.
Think about this…
If you’ve taken a profit on a trade and then choose to look back at it, then one of two things will happen…
- The position will reverse. You will have sold at the perfect time. And you’ll expect to be able to do that consistently in the future. This leads to overconfidence and the belief that you’ll always be able to get out of town just before the market gods unleash their wrath. This is a dangerous thought process.
- The position will go on to even bigger profits. You will have sold too early. And, even though you took a good profit on the trade, you’ll feel bad because you could have made so much more. This leads you to question every future trade. You’re more inclined to hang on longer than you should. And you may not be able to get out of town in time.
If you’ve taken a loss on the trade and look back at it, then even if the position continues to fall, you’ll still feel bad about having taken a loss.
And, if the position turns around and starts to move in your favor, then you’ll likely start hanging on to other losing trades longer than you should – hoping they’ll start moving in your favor as well.
Traders have nothing to gain by looking back at trades they’ve already exited. You can’t change your decision whether it’s proven brilliant or stupid. All looking back will do is paralyze you, like a pillar of salt, on future trades.
It’s important to understand that longevity as a trader has nothing to do with achieving the maximum profit on any one position. It has to do with consistently taking profits on trades as they reach your price targets.
You’re NEVER going to consistently buy at the low and sell at the high. Trying to do so will eventually lead to missing out on good trade setups, and holding onto trades longer than you should.
So, avoid the temptation to look back at the trades you’ve exited. Be happy with your decision to get out of town. Focus on the future and don’t look back.
Lot and his family left Sodom and prospered in the neighboring town of Zoar. Lot’s wife looked back and was turned into a pillar of salt.
Best regards and good trading,
P.S. One last thing before I let you go…
Right now I’m at the Legacy Investment Summit, an annual conference showcasing the biggest ideas from Legacy’s brightest investment gurus. Teeka Tiwari, Doug Casey, Jeff Brown, and many more are all here with me.
My presentation, Rich Shaman, Poor Shaman: New Age Trading for a New Age Market, airs this afternoon. And I can’t wait to get on stage and show everyone what I’ve been working on.
If you missed your chance to come to this year’s event, don’t worry… You can still livestream the event from the comfort of your own home. And, even if you’re too busy to watch it live, everyone who buys a livestream ticket will have access to a recording of the event.
Today, one subscriber thanks Jeff for his patience…
I really appreciate your decision to wait for “high probability setups.” I would much rather wait for that than jump into something that goes to zero, because I do enough of that all by myself.
Thank you, as always, for your thoughtful comments. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming at [email protected].
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