No Need for Panic in Bitcoin

Stocks are doing great right now.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on January 19, and the Nasdaq is up nearly 5% already since the start of the year.

But one corner of the market isn’t feeling the love…

I’m talking about cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is currently down 6% on the year. That doesn’t sound too bad on the surface.

However, it’s important to point out that bitcoin started the year on a high note. By January 11, bitcoin was up over 16% after hitting a high of $49,000.

And with bitcoin currently trading around $39,000, that means the king of cryptocurrencies has lost $10,000 in value in just two weeks.

Don’t Panic – A Buy Signal Is Coming

I’m here to tell you to keep your cool.

These kinds of pullbacks are normal when it comes to cryptocurrency. More than that, they’re expected.

This current pullback isn’t unusual in any way. And if my analysis is right, we still have further down to go before bitcoin finds a bottom.

So if you’ve been looking for an opportunity to buy the dip in bitcoin, know that it’s coming soon. We have to be a bit more patient, but we should be getting a buy signal over the next couple of weeks.

And if you’re worried about your current bitcoin holdings, it’s important to stay calm.

I’ve got a price chart of bitcoin for you below. On the chart are a couple of key indicators that will help us time the end of the pullback.

They’re the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The RSI is my preferred indicator for measuring the momentum of a market. As a market gets overextended, the RSI will flash “overbought” and “oversold” signals.

Overbought signals occur at the top of the RSI, and oversold signals occur at the bottom of the RSI. You’ll see exactly how this works when we take a look at the price chart.

These RSI signals can be used to help time when a market is going to turn either lower or higher.

The 200 SMA is my preferred long-term trend indicator.

Simply put, if the market is trading above the 200 SMA, we can say it’s in an uptrend. Trading below the 200 SMA means we’re in a downtrend.

Now let’s check out bitcoin’s chart below:

Right away, we can see two important things on this chart:

• Bitcoin is currently above its 200 SMA. Like I mentioned earlier, this is very strong technical evidence that bitcoin is in an uptrend.

• The RSI hasn’t reached oversold conditions yet.

In order for bitcoin to put in a bottom and end this pullback, we need to see the RSI flash an oversold signal. At the same time, bitcoin should get closer to its 200 SMA.

This would mimic the explosive setup we saw in bitcoin that took shape between August and October 2023.

Back then, bitcoin briefly dipped below the 200 SMA. At the same time, the RSI reached extremely oversold conditions.

It took a while, but bitcoin stabilized before breaking back above the 200 SMA.

The king of cryptos then went on a 96% run, just about doubling in value.

You can see for yourself how powerful this setup can be. If bitcoin trades back to its 200 SMA while the RSI flashes an oversold reading, that could be the best buy-the-dip opportunity we’ll get for a long time.

Happy trading,

Imre Gams
Analyst, Market Minute