I’m scared.
It’s not the kind of “scared” you feel when you hear a noise in the attic on a rainy Halloween night. It’s the kind of “scared” you get on a beautiful summer day, when the whole world is at peace, and everything feels just about perfect.
Then you go to your mailbox and find a letter from the IRS.
The stock market feels too comfortable right now. And that frightens me.
There should be some uneasiness. After all, the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates this afternoon. And, given the unexpected rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported yesterday, there’s a really good chance the Fed will raise rates at least a couple more times this year.
That’s good news… if you’re a saver. To you, higher interest rates means higher earnings on your savings at banks, brokerages, and other financial institutions.
If you’re a borrower, though… well… consider this afternoon’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement as your “thump in the attic.”
US government debt is the highest it’s ever been. Corporate debt is at obscene levels as well. And individual consumer debt is almost setting a record.
Now, let’s face it, nobody pays off debt anymore. They simply recycle it. When it’s time to pay off a loan, governments, companies, and individuals simply take out another loan and repay the old loan with the proceeds.
You can get away with that in a declining-interest-rate environment. But when interest rates are rising, you have to borrow money at a higher rate. So, the cost of the debt is an increasingly larger burden.
That cost weighs us down. It’s like trying to swim a 100-meter freestyle with a 50-pound weight tied around our waist.
The market doesn’t seem too concerned with it yet. So, maybe I shouldn’t be either.
But here’s what does concern me this morning…
This is the 60-minute chart of the S&P 500.
For the past several days, it’s been forming a bearish rising wedge pattern with negative divergence on the MACD and RSI technical indicators. This sort of pattern almost always leads to some downside action.
If you look closely, you can see the S&P broke below the support line of the wedge late yesterday afternoon. So, we’re probably due for some selling pressure today. And there’s a good chance that selling pressure will coincide with the FOMC announcement on interest rates this afternoon.
There’s no guarantee, of course. Markets do whatever they’re going to do.
But, given the overwhelming sense of complacency among investors… and the bearish look of this short-term chart of the S&P 500… I’m afraid investors might be in for a little pain this afternoon.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
P.S. Earlier this year, I flew out to Miami Beach to meet with a group of free-thinking market analysts for a closed-door meeting.
Most of them were longer-term investors. Though there was at least one other trader presenting… and I loved what he had to say.
He asked me not to reveal his identity. But, he showed off a new trading technique that can help dramatically boost your returns. And it’s tied to a specific strategy – outside of options – that increases your odds on any given trade. Learn more about it here.
Reader Mailbag
Today, readers reflect on yesterday’s piece, “Dear Dad“…
Mr. Clark, thank you for this heartfelt reminder to us all. I might add Mom also. We never seem to fully tell our parents how much we love them or at least appreciate all they have done for us.
– John
Jeff, I will soon be a 69-year-old, who is a father and a son of two deceased parents. I couldn’t agree more with your advice! Trusting your instincts and acting on those impulses will serve all of us well. It’s a fact of life that we learn that only after we fail to do it once. I’m sure that your sons will appreciate that “life’s little lesson.” Thank you for reminding all of us and Happy Father’s Day!
– Sam
Jeff, I am sorry to hear about your regrets for not calling your father one last time. I too, as I am getting older, have many moments, or even days or longer, that I wished I could turn back the clock on. Life is like a river, that river in time that never lets us back. Some of us have successfully navigated most or all of the forks in the river, but others have not. Be thankful for your family and the time that they are willing to spend with you. Hopefully, they will have the same feelings about you as did you about your father.
Try not to get into the habit of looking backward though; if you do, you will not see the next bend in the river and may miss out on a happy future. We hope we’ll accomplish most of what we were put here for, until our river comes to an end.
– David
Weird coincidence, Jeff – I got that same call about my father a week ago. He was an ex-smoker, and like your father, had been living on borrowed time for many years, so it was a call I had been half-expecting for a decade. He died less than 24 hours later, while my plane was still queueing to take off from JFK. No regrets, though, we video chatted when we exchanged birthday gifts recently (I sent him a bottle of Macallan 12-year scotch, he sent me a nice wooden chess set), and we were playing correspondence chess online together right up until he was admitted to the hospital. He knew he was loved.
Here’s to dads – and memories of them!
– Tony
Well I don’t know you personally Mr. Clark, but I have always felt that if we were close to people when they were alive, they knew how we felt about them. One thing I do know – God loves us and He would not want you to live your life feeling guilty, nor would your dad that loves you want you going through life feeling guilty. You are right. We do need to keep close contact with those who are dear to us. You have a blessed day.
– Jeff
Thank you, as always, for your kind and thoughtful letters. Keep them coming – along with any other questions, suggestions, or trading stories – right here.